The Monthly Scientific Journal of Bagh-e Nazar

Extracting Key Economic Indicators Affecting Housing Prices in the Metropolises of Iran Using the Fuzzy Delphi Method

https://doi.org/10.22034/bagh.2024.454160.5595
Volume 21, Issue 136
October 2024
Pages 29-38
The Monthly Scientific Journal of Bagh-e Nazar

Document Type : Original Research Article

Authors

Farbod Mortazavi 1
Seyed Hossein Hosseini Nourzad 2

1 Ph.D. Candidate in Project Management, Faculty of Architecture, College of Fine Arts, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.

2 Assistant Professor, Faculty of Architecture, College of Fine Arts, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.

Abstract
Problem statement: One of the questions for construction industry stakeholders and the public, as the primary beneficiaries of housing in Iran’s metropolises, is how housing prices will change in the future. In other words, when and with what intensity will periods of housing recession and boom occur? Answering these questions requires a future-oriented perspective on housing and an understanding of the relationship between housing prices and the country’s macroeconomic indicators.
Research objective: This study aims to extract the most crucial macroeconomic indicators affecting housing prices in the country’s metropolises to foster thinking and research on future housing prices and understand the cycles of housing recession and boom. This study hopes to contribute to real estate development companies, design and construction firms, investors, users, and industry stakeholders make better and more effective decisions for their businesses and lives. This approach reveals and clarifies potential risks and dangers in the future housing market, enabling better examination and responsiveness for the mentioned audience.
Research method:  Based on the steps of the Fuzzy Delphi method, all macroeconomic indicators related to housing prices were initially extracted through a review of library resources and previous research. Then, through expert surveys and screening of each indicator’s scores and comparison of their acquired values, the most critical economic indicators affecting housing prices were determined.
Conclusion: The study’s key indicators, in order of significance, are “inflation,” “exchange rate,” “residential land value,” “construction costs,” and “liquidity.” The extracted indicators and their order indicate that the “investment” aspect of housing in Iran’s metropolises is more important than the “supply” and “demand” aspects.

Keywords

Housing Prices
Recession and Boom Periods
Economic Indicators
Construction Industry
Fuzzy Delphi Method
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